Tariffs are still having a devastating effect on the logistics and transportation industries. These tariff-driven distortions come at a moment when China’s expanding influence on global markets is becoming far more visible, as seen in the increased transparency initiatives across its commodities exchanges. Major ports are seeing a sharp decline in imports following records earlier this year, and supply chain volumes are rolling over.
Truckload Volumes and Freight Trends
According to the DAT Truckload Volume Index, prices for van, flatbed, and refrigerated loads were lower in October for the first time in 2025, both month over month and year over year.
DAT’s Chief of Analytics, Ken Adamo, says that freight volumes in the third quarter and October mirror the state of the overall goods sector, with shippers using inventories accumulated earlier in the year to lessen their exposure to tariffs and low consumer demand. The customary high holiday shipping season appears to be almost nonexistent this year as a result.
Van truckloads decreased 11% year over year and 3% from September. Truckloads of refrigerated goods decreased 7% annually and 2% monthly. Flatbed truckloads decreased by 3% annually and 4% monthly. Products traveling from distribution centers to retailers make up a smaller percentage of dry van and temperature-controlled loads that are currently passing through the supply chain. The drop in trade can be attributed to a number of factors, including industrial and housing downturns, rising energy prices, shippers delaying imports earlier in the year, and stockpiling goods to lessen the effects of tariffs.
After a month-long wait due to the government shutdown, the most recent U.S. Census Bureau data was released on Wednesday. It revealed a notable drop in imports in August following the implementation of new tariffs, $18.4 billion less than the level of imports in July. According to the Census, the country’s trade imbalance decreased by more than 23% as a result of the import decline.
Trump’s tariffs will continue to reduce maritime freight going to the United States, according to recent freight container tracker data released by the Port of Long Beach, the country’s second-busiest port.
The 16% drop in Chinese imports into the US is what you’re looking at. There is a general decline.
Container Volumes Fall as Trade Frontloading Ends and Consumer Weakness Takes Hold
The decline in containers comes after a period of trade frontloading, when manufacturers and merchants brought in freight ahead of schedule in an effort to manage many tariff deadlines and rate changes, causing significant increases in port traffic. Vizion reports a 10% year-over-year increase in global containers to the West Coast. Due to its shortest travel time, the West Coast is also up 4.6% year over year, making it the most favored trade route for Chinese goods entering the United States.
Container shipments in East Coast ports, such as Houston, have increased by a meager 2% annually. On the other hand, containers from China have decreased by 12%.
Cordero stated, “The good news is that we’re still in the black.” Although he stated that a dip in the fourth quarter was anticipated, the following step is crucial. He said that the resiliency of American consumers and their purchasing behavior are still up in the air, and the next two months will be crucial in determining whether or not that increase slows down.
U.S. Import Forecasts and Market Caution
According to Ben Tracy, vice president of strategic business growth at real-time container tracking company Vizion, after a 12% drop in Q3, we are now projecting a nearly 16.6% year-over-year fall for U.S. imports in December. Tracy stated that there was no sign of a recovery. The mounting weakness mirrors the broader caution visible across global markets, where investors have grown increasingly sensitive to signs of economic softening.
Fearing a consumer pullback from food and product inflation, manufacturers and retailers stopped making large freight purchases. This week, Home Depot and Target reported losses, while Walmart posted strong results, showing that consumers are focusing on value and that upper-class shoppers make up a larger share of Walmart’s sales.
Walmart’s upcoming earnings report is being watched closely for exactly this reason, as investors look for early signals of whether value shopping can withstand broader consumer pullbacks.
According to Vizion CEO Kyle Henderson, monthly import volumes are regularly falling below 2 million TEUs for the first time since March 2023. This isn’t merely a seasonal decline or brief corrective. As per the research, tariff uncertainty, frozen real estate values, and a fundamental change in consumer spending away from tangible goods are all contributing factors to this structural goods recession.
Retailers are relying on the lowest consumer season in years, as evidenced by the 33% decline in furniture imports and the 17% increase in toy imports, which typically soar 40–50% before the holidays.
Container utilization has decreased from 100% to 91%, according to Vizion statistics.
According to Vizion, there will be 2.19 million twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEUs) arriving at U.S. ports in December 2025 compared to 2.62 million TEUs last December. This volume reduction of more than 430,000 TEUs would have an impact on the entire supply chain.
Shrinking Imports Hit Jobs, Supply Chains, and Key Trade Lanes Beyond China
Port labor, as well as trains, trucks, and warehouses, also feels the impact.
Longshoremen will need to move fewer containers per day if there is less freight.
Labor is really concerned. It returns to work anxiety and declines in employment. Reduced volume will affect the jobs in the supply chain, especially on the docks at the Port of Long Beach.
The International Longshoremen’s Association, which handles freight at the ports, receives an annual bonus based on the volume of containers they move.
According to Vizion, the freight market supporting this trade has collapsed due to duties on India in addition to those on China. Between May and September of 2025, the total value of Indian exports to the United States fell by a staggering 37.5%, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative. There is a 50% duty on Indian exports.
Taken together, the shifts in trade flows, shrinking container volumes, and deepening tariff pressures point to a freight market entering a prolonged period of adjustment. With consumer demand uncertain and geopolitical tensions affecting global supply lines, industry leaders warn that next year will focus more on resilience than recovery. Whether the sector stabilizes or slides further will depend heavily on policy decisions, inflation trends, and the strength of the American consumer, factors that remain anything but predictable as the year draws to a close.